Social Security Models


Social security around the world deserves the careful attention of WAISers.  Clyde McMorrow writes: I have been reading a great deal about the U.S. Social Security system and whether or not it is viable in its present implementation.  There seem to be several forecasting models that predict different dates at which the system
will become bankrupt.  Long term forecasts are very difficult to make and depend on a number of assumptions about the behavior of future populations.

Many WAISers will remember Jay Forrester's book World Dynamics (Wright-Allen Press, Cambridge, 1973) that was later published as "The Limits to Growth by the Club of Rome (the WAIS of its time) in which a multi-factor model of world population was developed that showed a world population collapse starting around 2020 and in full stride by 2060.  I haven't studied this model in years so I am not discussing the quality of the predictions but rather the excellent presentation of the background of the assumptions in Forrester's book.  Does anyone know if there is similar information available about the models used to analyze the Social Security trust fund?  What is the form of these models?  What are the assumptions?

Ronald Hilton 2005

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last updated: June 10, 2005